Mentatul

Tag: globalwarming

  • Preparing for Hot Earth

    Preparing for Hot Earth

    This article was written about 2 weeks before COVID-19^. Within this article, “Beware the falling empire” is of particular interest to the current situation. Please read this extra carefully. To say that COVID-19 is a game-changer is an understatement. COVID-19 will get its own article soon.

    It doesn’t matter if you believe that humans are contributing to global warming or not. Doesn’t matter if you believe the current scientific consensus or not. What matters is that Earth is getting hotter. Some of the major consequences are:

    • Weather patterns will become more chaotic, with extreme weather to become increasingly common.
    • Some areas of Earth will become harder to live in. Yet, it’s to also important to be aware that others areas will become easier to live in. This reshaping of the ecosystem will make and break societies, turn farming upside down and remake transport networks.
    • Oceans will rise, risking to cause major conflicts over coastline loss.
    • Acceleration of global warming. Sadly, as average temperatures increase around the globe, there will be a number of elements that will further contribute to global warming. For example forest fires (much worse than the ones Australia just experienced^) and, much worse^, the release of methane from permafrost^.

    Oh, and a solar maximum is on its way too, currently scheduled between 2023 and 2026^.

    Sure, if our civilization finally reaches consensus on doing something about global warming, we may be able to slow or even reverse the process. But, given the current political outlook and economic dogmas, it doesn’t seem that we’ll see any serious measures being taken in the coming years. So, let’s get ready for what may be coming and let’s meet it with the best we’ve got.

    Tipping the scales

    While it may be discouraging to see that the large polluters seem stuck in the wrong millennium (or worse, they know exactly what’s going to happen), this doesn’t mean small changes won’t help. In fact, it is exactly these small changes that may eventually convince/force corporations & governments to do something more meaningful about global warming.

    A powerful intent changes everything. If we set our mind to it, we, the people, can build any world we wish, because we are the civilization. Small changes gather into trends, trends break new ground and, at last, fundamental change follows.

    Here are just a few of the changes any individual can participate with:

    • The market for ecological and ethical products is growing. Buy healthy and/or local products.
    • Choose jobs that benefit society or see how you can improve your current job and/or do what you can to improve your company’s social responsibility.
    • Remember that up until last century, before the emergence of monstrous industrial fast-food chains, meat consumption was much lower. It is easy to adjust to a lower meat consumption, focusing on higher quality meat.
    • If you own a house, invest in clean energy such as solar panels and heat pumps. You will get your money back while also improving your carbon footprint.
    • Consider ethical consumerism^. It’s an interesting instrument for change.
    • Do not underestimate the power of grassroots activism. Walk the talk, but also talk the walk: show friends and family what can be done. Some of these people may end up in places of power where they will build a sustainable future.
    • Consider ethical economy^ and what can be done to get us there.

    There is a (pretty good) chance that enough people make enough changes to start tipping the scales and trigger a chain reaction towards the evolution of our civilization. If not, in time, the change will have to happen anyway. However…

    Beware the falling empire

    Endless economic growth cannot continue with finite resources. Either our growth will halt and then crash into an unprecedented recession, or the resources we prize (and how we consume them) will have to change, refocusing our economy on growing in other areas. Imagine an economy that focuses on producing quality products that last a lifetime. In any case, the current civilization will at one point go into decline. Global warming will probably accelerate this downfall.

    If we don’t invent a better civilization in time, the forced modification of the current world order may be, at times, violent. Like an epileptic seizure, the old structures will thrash and convulse before they finally succumb to their inevitable fate, rendered obsolete by the civilization that has adapted to a new ecosystem. Hopefully, we’ll have something better in place by then. And if not…

    It’s wise to plan ahead and make sure that we and our families don’t get in the way of the crumbling titan. Here are some things to watch out for, most of which are already happening:

    • Failing public services (particularly healthcare and pensions).
    • Conflict caused by societies fractured by inequality and extreme political/ideological polarization.
    • Vulnerable geographic areas when it comes to food growing capabilities and food&water supply.
    • Military conflicts between nation states stuck in our tribal past.

    Consider the long-term outlook of geographical locations on Earth. Coastal, polluted, crowded or already hot areas may not be suitable to live in long-term. Northern latitudes, however, are well positioned to flourish thanks to the warming climate. Consider possible conflicts for land, especially in water-deprived areas or countries that may lose important territory due to flooding and/or raising temperatures.

    Indeed, there are countless variables to keep track of if a “survival of the fittest” chaos ensues. Luckily, we now have some pretty amazing technology and communication methods. Well-prepared networks of individuals will weather whatever storm follows.

    “Evolution cannot be stopped. It can only be embraced.”

    [ax_meta fbimgurl=’http://mentatul.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/04188-PreparingForHotEarth-Share.jpg’ lnimgurl=’http://mentatul.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/04188-PreparingForHotEarth-Thumb.jpg’ fbimgw=’1170′ fbimgh=’350′ lnimgw=’250′ lnimgh=’250′ title=’Preparing for Hot Earth’ desc=’Evolution cannot be stopped. It can only be embraced.’]

  • Scratching the Surface of Solar Power

    Scratching the Surface of Solar Power

    Among all the different ways we currently can produce electricity, harnessing the power of the sun is the cleanest. The efficiency of solar panels^ has increased during the past decade, following solid research investments in renewable energy sources. Even though the installation of solar panels can take up vast amounts of space, this can be done in areas where there is not so much life to disturb, such as deserts.

    Did you know that by covering less than 2% of the Great Saharan Desert with solar panels we can meet the energy consumptions needs of the entire planet? Here’s an excellent article^ that presents the calculations behind the mind-blowing fact. Interfering with the ecosystem in that 2% of desert would save countless other ecosystems from the damage done by the extraction, pollution and storage of fossil and nuclear fuels.

    But the world’s energy needs will continue to increase. In the same time, we’re witnessing worsening global catastrophes due to global warming, a situation we’ve brought upon ourselves. We need to think big. Thanks to advances in mass manufacturing, we can think big. And that’s exactly what I invite you to do.

    The purpose of any post in the Futurology^ category is to launch a wild, boundless speculation regarding what the future holds regarding a certain concept. To get things going, here are some of the things I imagine can happen as we begin on our journey of tapping into the power of the sun. Feel free to submit your own ideas in the comments below. With your approval I may integrate these in the article, giving proper credit.

    • Our species’ solar power capabilities are a product of two main factors: the efficiency of solar panels and the covered surface. While scientists are dutifully tinkering away at increasing efficiency, engineers have to devise new ways to deploy solar energy collectors. And, thanks to transparent solar panels^, we just have earned a significant increase in the potentially covered surface. In a couple of decades, most window panes in the world might be able to collect a little bit of solar energy. The efficiency of transparent panels is, of course, not that great (currently at around 5%, compared to around 20% for opaque panels). However, what they lack for in efficiency, they can more than make up for in surface.
    • It is not only buildings that can benefit from transparent solar panels. Let’s feed two birds with the same seed bag: protect freeways from rain and cities from noise by covering major arteries with a solar-collecting glass roof. The same layer could then feed energy to electrical vehicles traveling on the freeway.
    • One of the most important issues to solve when it comes to the installation of solar panels in as many places as possible is their ergonomics (bulky forms) and the lack of infrastructure needed to accommodate them. Quite a bit of wiring and rebuilding is required. Not only will solar panels have to become lighter and easier to install, but governments will also have to start treating this as a public service offered to citizens willing to turn their property into mini-powerplants. This is already happening, to some extent. In many countries, installing solar panels is heavily subsidized by the government (Sweden, for example, has a 30% subsidy).
    • The adoption of building standards favoring solar energy collection is also greatly needed. Buildings should come with all the wiring required to become solar collectors and to feed electricity into the local grid. Governments should incentivize building environmentally sustainable buildings through tax breaks.
    • With the advent of nanomaterials and robotics, solar panel installations will become even cheaper in the years to come. Of particular interest are certain “super-materials” such as graphene^. There is a lot of enthusiasm^ surrounding graphene and solar panels, but unfortunately not that many tangible results as of yet. In any case, solar installations are bound to become easier and more affordable in the near future.
    • Many houses have already started using their roof surface to lower their electricity bills. But wait until entire cities become covered in light-absorbing surfaces. We could use walls, windows and eventually even streets and sidewalks to gain energy from absorbed sunlight.
    • It’s important to note that the improper use of solar power can increase global warming. That’s because what mass solar power adoption would actually do is to decrease the albedo^ of the Earth. In other words: we’d absorb more heat from the Sun. It is true that the atmosphere would be cleaner and therefore the greenhouse effect^ would be reduced, but that won’t happen overnight. So, what is the right way to use solar power?
    • I’m glad I asked. How about using solar power to tackle one of the most dangerous threats we as a species have brought upon the planetary ecosystem? Solar power can not only slow global warming, but it might actually be able to reverse it. The method is simple and the technology is already in mass production. It’s called a heat inverter or “reverse cycle heat pump”^. What these babies do is to use electricity in order to extract heat from the atmosphere and transport it somewhere else (such as somebody’s home or a factory). But there’s an even better heat source than the atmosphere available: the ocean (water is better than air (0.6 vs 0.02) at conducting heat).
    • One of the main victims of global warming is the planetary ocean^ (and pretty much any other body of water). Turns out the oceans are very good heat reservoirs. Turns out we also might soon be facing coastal destruction due to rising sea levels^. The oceans are warming rapidly^. How can solar power fix this? A geo-engineering project^ could consist of installing millions of heat inverters on those coasts around the world where there are warm water currents. This would contribute to cooling off the ocean while in the same time providing district heating to cities. The energy (motors & pumps) required to relocate the heat from the ocean would come from the sun.
    • Actually, the solar panels for such a system could be installed on the ocean itself. The surface of the planetary ocean is quite a bit larger than that of the Sahara Desert, which I mentioned in the beginning of the article. Another advantage of having a system of solar barges, covered in panels, is that there’s less particle pollution on the ocean, so they would require less cleaning (and there’s plenty of water around to easily clean them). Keep in mind, however, that geoengineering can be an arrogant species’ last steps on a slippery slope^.
    • Solar arctic installations could also help avert global warming. However, panels installed there would require a great degree of adaptability to extreme weather conditions, including an automated snow cleanup system.
    • To think even bigger, how about space solar panels? In the future, these could be constructed directly in orbit, or perhaps on the Moon. Their energy could be beamed to Earth using microwaves. Even better, what if this can be combined with a public and freight transport system such as zeppelins? Huge, solar-capture zeppelins could circle the world while the space solar collector beams the energy at shorter distance, directly onto the zeppelin, which in turn is connected via a cable to a vehicle traveling on a freeway below. With the advent of advanced auto-pilot systems, such logistical tricks could soon become easy to setup and optimize.
    • A space solar collector could also be used to reduce the amount of sunlight reaching certain areas of the planet. Even a 5% drop in sunlight would do miracles for countries suffering from heatwaves. Such geoengineering ideas^ aren’t new, but most of them are outrageously expensive – at least until robotic space manufacturing becomes a thing.
    • A warning about space solar collection: such systems could potentially be turned into weapons. Cyberwarfare is very real^ and very dangerous. We cannot embark onto such an adventure until we, as a species, take some important steps forward when it comes to mutual trust.

    The Futurology Disclaimer: I do not claim that my ideas are original. I’m sure these suggestions are just scratching the surface of what can be achieved, but hopefully they’ve scratched enough to get somebody inspired to come up with more. I’m also sure many of these ideas are already being worked on by several organizations. If any of the ideas listed by anybody on this page are original and will benefit any organization, I expect credit to be given where it’s due.

    Version history:

    2018-06-05 – 1.0 – Written.

    [ax_meta lnimgurl=’http://mentatul.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/03192-ScratchingSolarPower-Thumb.jpg’ lnimgw=’250′ lnimgh=’250′ title=’Scratching the Surface of Solar Power’ desc=’Among all the different ways we currently can produce electricity, harnessing the power of the sun is the cleanest.’]

  • Reef Death

    Reef Death

    “One-third of the 3,863 reefs that make up the Great Barrier Reef — the largest, most extensive reef system in the world — went through a catastrophic die-off after a searing heat wave in 2016, according to a newly published study in the journal Nature. A bleaching event in 2017 devastated even more of that reef, and the cumulative effects have killed an estimated half of the magnificent system in just two years.”

    It’s a quote from the article below, a work that fits in the “doom and gloom” category. But unlike articles about Planet X, the “unavoidable catastrophic” eruption of Yellowstone or the reversal of the Earth’s magnetic poles, this is “real doom and gloom”. Corals around the world are dying at an alarming rate. This can lead to sudden, disastrous effects on the ocean ecosystem (and thus, the entire planet).

    Even though a small number of coral species benefit from higher heat and acidity tolerance, the significant world-wide drop in coral density will affect oceans in ways that might seriously disrupt, among others, our food supply. It’s hard to predict how this will affect the Earth’s population. Even for those that don’t eat fish (like myself), a shortage of fish will result in increased demand (and price) for all other foodstuffs.

    Personally, I quit eating fish long time ago due to the fact that most fish I can find in shops comes from waters where there is a high risk of pollution. It’s going to be a while until I can trust eating anything coming from an ocean where humans have dumped their experiments and industrial residue for centuries:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/coral-reefs-great-barrier-reef-dying-from-bleaching-warming-2018-4?r=US&IR=T&IR=T^

    Additional reading:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coral#Threats^

    [ax_meta lnimgurl=’http://mentatul.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/02993-ReefDeath-Thumb.jpg’ lnimgw=’250′ lnimgh=’250′ title=’Reef Death’ desc=’One-third of the 3,863 reefs that make up the Great Barrier Reef went through a catastrophic die-off after a searing heat wave in 2016.’]

  • Our Warming Atmosphere Makes Plants Less Nutritious

    Our Warming Atmosphere Makes Plants Less Nutritious

    It is said that “you are what you eat”. That stands true not only for humans, but for everything that eats. It’s well known that at optimal temperatures and humidity, plants thrive given light and carbon-dioxide. It was considered that one of the perhaps positive effects of global warming would be that plants would grow faster. This self-balancing property of our ecosystem could even contribute to cleaning up our atmosphere, as more plants would eat more CO2. That may very well hold true, if it wasn’t for desertification^.

    However, even though plants do thrive thanks to having more carbon-dioxide available, they apparently are not as nutritious. This is an extremely important finding, because, like as the article below points out, “increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is reducing the protein in staple crops like rice, wheat, barley and potatoes, raising unknown risks to human health in the future”:

    https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2017/09/13/food-nutrients-carbon-dioxide-000511^

    “Every leaf and every grass blade on earth makes more and more sugars as CO2 levels keep rising,” Loladze said. “We are witnessing the greatest injection of carbohydrates into the biosphere in human history―[an] injection that dilutes other nutrients in our food supply.”

    Perhaps we humans can compensate for a diet comprised of less nutritious plants through various supplements, but this doesn’t bode well for our ecosystem and therefore for us. The planet is already adapting to the carbon-dioxide we’ve added into the atmosphere, but there will be [unforeseen] consequences, probably more than we can even imagine.

    In closing, here’s a longer quote from the highly recommended article linked above:

    Could carbon dioxide have an effect on human health we haven’t accounted for yet? The answer appears to be yes—and along the way, it has steered Loladze and other scientists, directly into some of the thorniest questions in their profession, including just how hard it is to do research in a field that doesn’t quite exist yet.

    In agricultural research, it’s been understood for some time that many of our most important foods have been getting less nutritious. Measurements of fruits and vegetables show that their minerals, vitamin and protein content has measurably dropped over the past 50 to 70 years. Researchers have generally assumed the reason is fairly straightforward: We’ve been breeding and choosing crops for higher yields, rather than nutrition, and higher-yielding crops—whether broccoli, tomatoes, or wheat—tend to be less nutrient-packed.

    In 2004, a landmark study of fruits and vegetables found that everything from protein to calcium, iron and vitamin C had declined significantly across most garden crops since 1950. The researchers concluded this could mostly be explained by the varieties we were choosing to grow.

    Loladze and a handful of other scientists have come to suspect that’s not the whole story and that the atmosphere itself may be changing the food we eat. Plants need carbon dioxide to live like humans need oxygen. And in the increasingly polarized debate about climate science, one thing that isn’t up for debate is that the level of CO2 in the atmosphere is rising.

    [ax_meta lnimgurl=’http://mentatul.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/02862-WarmingAtmospherePlantsNutrition-Thumb.jpg’ lnimgw=’250′ lnimgh=’250′ title=’Our Warming Atmosphere Makes Plants Less Nutritious’ desc=’Increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is reducing the protein in staple crops like rice, wheat, barley and potatoes, raising unknown risks to human health in the future.’]

  • The Importance of Parasites

    The Importance of Parasites

    Ah, parasites! Those pesky little critters that suck the life out of various other organisms. But guess what, they’re more important than most people think. According to a new study, anywhere between 10% to 30% of the world’s parasitic species might go extinct due to global warming by 2070. This might seriously (and negatively) disrupt the ecosystem via the domino effect:

    http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/parasites-are-going-extinct-heres-why-thats-a-bad-thing-180964808/^

    Probably this will add to the list of horrors^ that awaits us thanks to what we’ve done to the planet.

    [ax_meta lnimgurl=’http://mentatul.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/02697-ImportanceOfParasites-Thumb.jpg’ lnimgw=’250′ lnimgh=’250′ title=’The Importance of Parasites’ desc=’According to a new study, anywhere between 10% to 30% of the world's parasitic species might go extinct due to global warming by 2070.’]

  • The Latest (and Greatest) on Climate Change

    The Latest (and Greatest) on Climate Change

    Thanks to climate-change skeptics, we’ve been fortunate to have a lot of talented, driven people doing great research that proves just how real and dangerous climate change really is. Unfortunately, even with the best of intentions, the media has turned the frequent updates from the scientific community into a deluge of climate change news, which led to the audience developing a sort of selective hearing when it comes to this topic. “Yeah, yeah, we’ve heard it all before”. However, here on Mentatul I need to address dozens of topics while keeping at roughly one post per week. This forces me to be very selective about what I post. So yes, this one is important.

    Two articles are the reason for this post. The first one is about farts. Cow farts to be precise. The methane that they contain, to be even more precise, and how it affects global warming:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/samlemonick/2017/09/29/scientists-underestimated-how-bad-cow-farts-are^

    And then I read this other article^ that lead me to another, even better article, which provides a rather appalling prognosis for our future. And it’s not even “the worst case scenario”. I’m sorry to say, but given all the statistics I’ve seen recently, it seems to be that the following article is presenting a future that has a high probability of becoming reality. And I see very few governments do anything about it, especially when it comes to the world’s biggest polluters.

    I am tempted to say that you shouldn’t read this if you’re currently feeling good with your life, because this piece is a real downer. But it is also one of the most relevant and well-written articles on climate change that I’ve come across in the past couple of years. This is an alarm bell made of pure gold:

    http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html

    I consider myself lucky to still have running water, electricity and generally healthy food available. In the same time, I feel it is almost disrespectful towards my child to enjoy all this without doing something about the immediate (speaking on a generational level) danger we’re in. I plan to do whatever I can to raise awareness about this topic. It’s never too late.

    [ax_meta lnimgurl=’http://mentatul.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/02618-LatestGreatestClimateChange-Thumb.jpg’ lnimgw=’250′ lnimgh=’250′ title=’The Latest (and Greatest) on Climate Change’ desc=’Thanks to climate-change skeptics, we've been fortunate to have a lot of talented, driven people doing great research that proves how real and dangerous global warming really is.’]

  • A Minute to Breathe

    A Minute to Breathe

    Sometimes art is the best way to get a point across. I could say much more, but let’s leave it at that. See the video, get the message, spread the message (if you care about it):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwwQ4uVGGSE^

    [ax_meta lnimgurl=’http://mentatul.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/02196-AMinuteToBreathe-Thumb.jpg’ lnimgw=’250′ lnimgh=’250′ title=’A Minute to Breathe’ desc=’Sometimes art is the best way to get a point across.’]