Every now and then, somebody is amazed at the ever-increasing power of computers to simulate reality. The accuracy of these simulations increases every year, in step with the increase in computing power. This has led some to extrapolate that eventually we will reach the ability to simulate an entire Universe, perhaps even including conscious beings. And if so, what if we’re a simulation ourselves? According to new research, this is, in principle, impossible due to, you guessed it, the most mysterious of phenomena: quantum effects.
The article above presents this as good news. For me, this is neither good nor bad news. Actually, thinking of myself as a simulated object never dulled my sense of reality, nor my respect for life. And besides, if I’m simulated then perhaps there are some mighty creatures watching over my destiny. What I experience right now sure doesn’t feel fake so I couldn’t care less about the technology behind it. In any case, theories come and go and who knows what the future holds? Probably not even the simulators ;).
[ax_meta lnimgurl=’http://mentatul.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/02797-ComputerSimulation-Thumb.jpg’ lnimgw=’250′ lnimgh=’250′ title=’We Don’t Live in a Computer Simulation (Is That a Good Thing?)’ desc=’Every now and then, somebody is amazed at the ever-increasing power of computers to simulate reality.’]
Security vulnerabilities are a dime a dozen now-a-days. But, when a couple of months ago we learned about Spectre^ and Meltdown^, it finally started to dawn on people just how insecure all our “high tech” really is. We’re using hole-ridden, bug-infested products.
If the Wikipedia articles above are too boring, here’s a relatively more layman-friendly breakdown of what happened:
I don’t know if the constant deluge^ of security exploits has resulted from the challenges that arise from working with highly complex technology or is caused by some sort of surveillance conspiracy. What’s certain is that this shows just how weak our technology is and how easily it can be overcome.
I will definitely not allow my home to be controlled by “smart devices” based on closed-source technology. And this includes closed-source hardware designs manufactured in factories under the control of expansionist governments:
[ax_meta lnimgurl=’http://mentatul.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/02754-SpectreOfMeltdown-Thumb.jpg’ lnimgw=’250′ lnimgh=’250′ title=’The Spectre of Meltdown’ desc=’After Spectre and Meltdown, it finally started to dawn on people just how insecure all our "high tech" really is.’]
It’s amazing what engineers can do even today with a 40 years old spacecraft. They just used thrusters that were dormant for 37 years to make an adjustment to Voyager’s orientation:
That’s some damn awesome engineering right there! Good job US!
[ax_meta lnimgurl=’http://mentatul.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/02717-AmazingSpaceEngineering40Years-Thumb.jpg’ lnimgw=’250′ lnimgh=’250′ title=’Amazing Space Engineering, 40 Years Later’ desc=’They just used thrusters that were dormant for 37 years to make an adjustment to Voyager's orientation.’]
Software is becoming more important with every passing year. We now live in a world where processes across the economic and social spectrum can be scaled, optimized and improved through software. Sometimes it’s automation, at other times it’s reinterpreting and transforming entire workflows into something that can be done remotely and collaboratively via various centralized systems (applications, websites, etc.).
Software is also a very new concept in the world of engineering. Its completely immaterial nature makes it difficult to craft using known techniques and processes. Unfortunately, the vast majority of companies out there haven’t yet adapted to software. Sometimes even companies that think of themselves that they are doing software go about it in a completely mechanical way. They put everything underneath the umbrella term “IT” (Information Technology). There is a very important distinction between technology and correctly (profitably) applying that technology.
Good software product design is essential for economic success. However, like the rest of the software universe, product design is a very rapidly changing set of methodologies and practices. Many companies are far behind where they should be in order to produce quality software.
Here are three videos that quickly and painlessly explain some key concepts about product lifecycle. Keep in mind the words of renowned product specialist Marty Cagan: today, “product” is almost synonymous with “software product” because software has become so ubiquitous.
I consider these videos to be a game-changer for anybody involved in building products. No matter what your role is, you are the force that can bring this change in your workplace and help towards building better products.
In the first video, Marty Cagan talks about the root causes for product failure:
[ax_meta lnimgurl=’http://mentatul.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/02689-WelcomeToFascinatingWorldOfProduct-Thumb.jpg’ lnimgw=’250′ lnimgh=’250′ title=’Welcome to the Fascinating World of Product’ desc=’Sometimes even companies that think of themselves that they are doing software go about it in a completely mechanical way.’]
Once upon a time, governments were major stakeholders in most large-scale technological and scientific ventures. Such projects were either built directly by the government, or by companies in which the people had a lot of say. But all that is far behind us. Now-a-days, government isn’t exactly “the people” anymore. And now, it’s corporations who build the telecommunication infrastructure for tomorrow:
I find it rather sad that as I’m typing this, I am pondering which is worse: having my digital life in the hands of corporations that will exploit it however they see fit, or (/and?) allowing governments to keep encroaching on our privacy and freedom? It’s becoming harder to distinguish between the two, especially as corporations have proven time and again that they can easily buy government.
It’s enough to look at how the political freak-show in the USA (not even a full year into its tragic, 4-years lifespan), is already spreading its tentacles across our civilization like a plagued octopus. The monstrosity is currently busy destroying what was left of “the land of the free”. Here’s how the American FCC (Federal Communications Commission) plans to eliminate the Net Neutrality^ laws that the Obama administration painstakingly managed to get through:
They call it “Restoring Internet Freedom”, and as the article above points out, the name is laughable. But then again, given the state of education worldwide (which leads to generalized compliance), governments can go on with passing draconian laws using these disgusting euphemisms.
Here are some even better law names that I’m putting forward so that governments can use in the coming decades:
“Labor Market Liberation” – a law to eliminate those pesky minimum wages.
“Nutritional Defense Initiative” – outlaws all ecological products, so that there can be no competition to industrialized, dangerous food.
“Empowering Citizen Security” – a law that allows citizens to spy on each other for as long as they report to a central authority. I bet they’re going to call that central authority the Situational Technical Assistance for Solidarity Initiative (STASI).
I can come up with more, but I think I made my point.
[ax_meta lnimgurl=’http://mentatul.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/02607-HowCorporationsOwnInternet-Thumb.jpg’ lnimgw=’250′ lnimgh=’250′ title=’How Corporations Get to Own the Internet’ desc=’Once upon a time, governments were major stakeholders in most large-scale technological and scientific ventures.’]
Throughout the past years there have been several high-profile occasions when apps were in the news for questionable tracking strategies. Even applications that do not use novel means of compromising our privacy are gobbling up increasing amounts of data while their creators cash in on the profits obtained from selling the user’s digital life^ to the highest bidder. At the receiving end of this deluge of spyware are we, the people.
Even for those of us that do read the list of permissions an app requests upon installation, it is hard to avoid installing certain apps because they come with other features that we need. It’s an old trick that is akin to the Trojan horse. This is how these dubious app creators get in our back yard: by offering something that is 90% useful and 10% spyware, but which must be accepted as a whole.
Devious solutions for the same old need
Smartphone espionage has gotten very clever as of late. Check these two^stories^ about ultrasonic tracking. According to one research, hundreds of Android apps with an install base in the millions include a library that is used for this purpose. The way this works is by listening to ultrasonic audio “beacons” implanted in advertisements. Humans can’t normally hear sound in this range, but smartphones’ microphones can.
When a user has one such application running and an advertisement that includes an ultrasonic marker plays on TV or anywhere around the user (for example radio or an ultrasound-emitting advertisement panel in a shopping mall), the app can make an association between the user and the played content. This can be used for simple tasks such as sending a unique ID back to a service which then sends a shop’s deals to a user, but it can just as well include a lot of other information about the device and its owner.
Some of the things this system can achieve are rather worrying. For example, it can be used for determining a user’s (approximate) location even if the GPS is turned off or out of range. This can be done by having a particular advertisement panel emit a unique ultrasound beacon. This can later be used to determine when the user is in its proximity. The system can also be used to track a user’s TV-watching habits without consent. Some of these uses are legitimate though, like pushing advertisement and coupons to somebody that has given their consent for using this “feature”. A few such apps disclose the tracking prominently. But this is usually not the case.
More recently, the Uber app was found to be capable to record portions of the iPhone screen^. The company defended itself saying that this was done in order to send images with maps to the iWatch (using the iPhone to render the map because the iWatch lacked the required performance). There’s a gazillion ways this can go wrong not if but when hackers manage to leverage this capability in order to steal passwords and other sensitive information. The feature was reportedly removed but it still shows exactly what the smartphone really is. And there’s no way to sugar coat this…
The smartphone is a surveillance device
Economically, it is used by corporations to mine data^ out of people and use it to manipulate them into buying products. The smartphone grew into a fascinating tool for mass surveillance because it comes with a bunch of features that users really want. I mean, it’s really nice to have a browser and a video camera available at all times, right? Except that all these “free” apps are just a gateway for companies that are tracking users ever since advertisers figured how to use our digital lives against us and our vulnerable minds.
Currently, the goal most of these companies have is to get us online for as much time as possible. As for the camera and the other (many) sensors inside a phone, we might end up not being the only ones controlling them. There are innumerable cases of this technology being used with criminal intent. There’s only need for one backdoor to take control of our devices and that backdoor’s existence is ensured by the producers of these devices.
Governments will of course not oppose this (they’ll even encourage it^) because the greatest concern of a government is to maintain its appearance as a legitimate organization. Investigative journalists^ and whistle-blowers^ have greatly damaged governments^ and corporations as of late. By increasing surveillance capabilities under various pretexts, governments and corporations hope to prevent the next public relations scandal. I’m not even blaming them; they’re just trying to survive^. But people who realize they’ve been sold behind closed doors won’t remain the loyal followers that these entities need in order to justify their existence.
To make things easier for themselves, governments will make sure they also have access^ to whatever technologies are deployed on these devices. One problem, however, is that the citizens of one country may use devices produced in another country. What is the percentage of electronics we manufacture in Asia? And then there’s this thing about hardware backdoors^.
Innocent bystanders
A few days ago I was waiting in line for an old lady that wanted to change the battery of her phone. It was a keypad phone of the kind considered modern 15 years ago. The image of her sitting there in front of the cashier will stay with me for a long time because, in an instant, my mind ran through the entire planned obsolescence racket^ and understood the inevitable verdict that will be given by the system this woman fell prey to.
In the past years I’ve become increasingly aware of the hideousness of hyper-consumerism^. But this situation has put a face on it. Of course, the shop couldn’t help her. The only option for the old lady was to switch to some other phone, most probably with a non-replaceable battery, so she can be forced to change it every few years. Not to mention she must adapt to new software every time it happens and probably be at the receiving end of automatic updates that will change features in her phone, which is exactly what an old lady wants from her device (not!).
With corporations making money from data and with governments drooling over the private lives of its citizens, it’s no wonder that phones with replaceable batteries have disappeared off the market (using “water resistance” as a cheap excuse). Yes, there is a likely connection between forcing people to upgrade their phones and the need to make sure that those people voluntarily carry around the latest and greatest in spying technology in their pocket. Hey, some people will even queue for days and pay outrageous amounts for these things.
Reasons & solutions
But why is it like this? The answer is terrible in its cruel simplicity. These are the rules of the Human Game^ at this point in time. What’s terrible is that even though we are directly responsible for creating and tolerating these rules, we also face an extremely powerful opposition to change them. The machine has grown into a huge, lumbering beast whose behavior harks back to our most ancient instincts, such as the imperious need to survive. Corporations need to earn money. They exist for this purpose and this purposealone. So it is no wonder they buy governments and do whatever it takes in order to survive in the jungle of a (stock) market^ that is the very heart of the machine.
Can this all change? Of course it can. And the solution is wonderful in its beautiful simplicity. We just need to change the criteria with which we purchase goods and services and with which we vote. It’s as simple as that. We need to change the rules of the Human Game. Stock market processes can be changed to encourage responsible and long-term investment. Governments can be encouraged to invest into research and education. Corporations will have no alternative but to transform themselves into entities that value the environment and respect their customers. Because otherwise, nobody will purchase what they’re peddling. There’s only need for one commercial entity in every field to prove that this works. This will generate a mass extinction of the old business model. And it’s us, the consumers, who can trigger and sustain this.
The very reason I write these words is because I strongly believe in this change. And what’s beautiful is that the change doesn’t even need to be sudden (and therefore potentially violent). Actually, it can’t be sudden because this modification in people’s mentality will not occur overnight. It will take time until more of us are ready to champion this cause and for it to spread. But it will happen. Of that, I am sure. I just wish that it will happen before another disaster strikes our civilization.
A lovely (even if sad) wordplay
In closing, here are a few other factoids from the war against privacy (I noticed that ZDNet has a pretty good section about all this):
[ax_meta fbimgurl=’http://mentatul.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/02596-NotSurprisingSmartphonePrivacy-Share.jpg’ lnimgurl=’http://mentatul.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/02596-NotSurprisingSmartphonePrivacy-Thumb.jpg’ fbimgw=’1170′ fbimgh=’350′ lnimgw=’250′ lnimgh=’250′ title=’Why It's Not Surprising That Smartphone Privacy Is Going from Bad to Worse’ desc=’Throughout the past years there have been several high-profile occasions when apps were in the news for questionable tracking strategies.’]
Machine Learning is all the rage these days. Be it computer vision, speech recognition, pattern matching or high-speed decisional capabilities, this century is the century of software. Like all technological revolutions, there’s potential for miracles and catastrophes.
Large corporations have started to realize^ that Machine Learning is a way to prevent smaller competitors^ from threatening them. This is because small companies can’t (yet) afford the huge infrastructure and Big Data investments that ML requires. It’s not surprising then that Microsoft, Google, FaceBook and others have open-sourced ML platforms, trying to attract developers and smaller companies to their ecosystems.
This post will touch on but a few of the changes we can expect in the coming decades thanks to the upcoming advances in Machine Learning. Looking at our history, we can see how the industrial revolution has supercharged our progress as a species. I believe that the Machine Learning revolution will make the industrial revolution seem like a snail in slow motion. This is both hopeful and scary.
The purpose of any post in the Futurology^ category is to launch a wild, boundless speculation regarding what the future holds regarding a certain concept. To get things going, here are some of the things I imagine can be accomplished in the near future (coming decades) by Machine Learning. Feel free to submit your own ideas in the comments below. With your approval I may integrate these in the article, giving proper credit.
Speech recognition is already quite advanced. In the coming decade, most day-to-day electronic devices will understand what humans speak. Additionally, these devices will form an interconnected sensorial mesh via the Internet of Things. Privacy will obviously be a major concern.
Without any prior technical knowledge, people will soon be able to talk to the robots that are about to enter our daily lives, both indoors^ and outdoors^. Countless jobs will be transformed or outright eliminated. Companies will jump at the opportunity of cutting costs. While some of this will have beneficial effects on some (company stakeholders for example), society might be negatively impacted as there will be plenty of those that cannot find a new job in a world that is increasingly robotized. Hopefully at least a part of the next generation of superrich few will empathize with the disadvantaged many.
Advanced algorithms are already able to take better (and much faster) decisions than humans in some fields (for example management of traffic, energy and bandwidth). This capability will expand to more and more areas. This development should not be confused with True Artificial Intelligence^, but will still mean that yet more jobs will be given to automated systems. Here’s for example how Google used machine learning to save a massive 15%^ in data center costs.
Companies that own data infrastructure will become dangerously powerful. Just look at how FaceBook allowed^ Russia to interfere^ in one of the most influential electoral contests in the world. Given the narrow difference between the candidates, it is quite possible that Russia’s influence (of which only a small part will ever be uncovered) will have been a decisive factor.
Governmental oversight could prevent a lack of balance in society, but strong lobbying from powerful corporations will continue to corrupt the purpose of government (in most countries, our representatives have long ceased representing us, if they even ever did).
The influence of ML throughout the economy means that society will have to find ways to protect those that are at risk of being crushed under the weight of the coming changes. In a way reminiscent of the industrial revolution, entire job sectors will become obsolete overnight, except that this time around the changes will come even faster and affect more people. Fortunately, we are also wiser and richer than a century ago so we are well positioned to find constructive solutions.
We may enter a period where creatives (artists) will again be in high demand. At least until True A.I. is upon us, machines still can’t create art. No matter how advanced an algorithm may be, the art it creates will still be a soulless mixture of unoriginal and random.
We run the risk of falling under total surveillance, aka Super Big Brother. This is much worse than what George Orwell could have even imagined when he wrote his 1984 novel. Super Big Brother doesn’t need humans to listen-in to conversations. It simply records everything (this is already being done, as the Snowden leaks proved). Then, somebody (like an oppressive authority that seeks to exterminate dissent) asks it to find certain information in text, audio or video recordings. If we now think that we have little privacy left, Super Big Brother will make things exponentially worse. Update 2018-04-30: check how China is using facial recognition in Guiyang^.
However, all is not so bleak. If good people act, there is another invention that will shackle Super Big Brother. That invention is open surveillance. All systems used for surveillance shall be based on open source software. All people being surveilled will be able to access their information and know why it was recorded (you were in a public space, you were suspected of a crime, etc.).
Government will put privacy back in the hands of the people. Because government has to be the people. And because lies and secrets never truly saved the world (although perhaps they helped in postponing major conflicts without, however, fixing the underlying problems). It will be openness and communication that will be proven to be the only way forward if we are to survive.
The Futurology Disclaimer: I do not claim that my ideas are original. I’m sure these suggestions are just scratching the surface of what can be achieved, but hopefully they’ve scratched enough to get somebody inspired to come up with more. I’m also sure many of these ideas are already being worked on by several organizations. If any of the ideas listed by anybody on this page are original and will benefit any organization, I expect credit to be given where it’s due.
Version history:
2017-11-23 – 1.0 – Written.
2018-04-30 – 1.1 – Added link about Guiyang use of facial recognition.
[ax_meta lnimgurl=’http://mentatul.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/02534-MachineLearningAndOurFuture-Thumb.jpg’ lnimgw=’250′ lnimgh=’250′ title=’Machine Learning and Our Future’ desc=’Like all technological revolutions, there's potential for miracles and catastrophes.’]
Scientists and aerospace engineers alike have long been worried about the consequences of junking Earth’s orbit^. On this site the topic was first mentioned shortly after North Korea put an (apparently) useless satellite^ up there. This is a serious issue, as highlighted by this year’s conference on space debris, which was understandably worried about recent initiatives that consist of launching entire constellations of micro-satellites:
The title of the article linked above is a bit misleading, as it is often the case with these for-profit media publications that rely on grabbing attention. No, this won’t ruin our orbit “forever”. But if the worst comes to pass, it will, however, ruin it for a couple of generations. So, from a single person’s perspective, it is forever.
Should we expect the worst to happen? With SpaceX alone planning to plant about 3000 (yes, that’s three thousand) satellites in orbit during the next decade, I think it is a valid concern. Especially as this is done with little (if any) preparation to mitigate orbital pollution:
We’re being reckless with our satellite launches. This can cause an orbital catastrophe that might see us lose a lot of our assets there, leading to an informational collapse. So far, I haven’t seen any of these organizations that dump junk around the orbit even consider a valid, peer-reviewed de-orbiting strategy. This seems extremely short-sighted for a species that is increasingly relying on its extra-terrestrial ventures.
[ax_meta lnimgurl=’http://mentatul.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/02485-CarefulWithThatOrbitNow-Thumb.jpg’ lnimgw=’250′ lnimgh=’250′ title=’Careful with That Orbit Now’ desc=’We're being reckless with our satellite launches. This can cause an orbital catastrophe that might see us lose a lot of our assets there, leading to an informational collapse.’]
A respected investigative journalist has recently penned a rather worrying piece about Tesla Motors’ progress with its high-stakes Model 3 vehicle. Things are far from going according to plan. What is even more disturbing for me are some of the recent shock & awe declarations of CEO Elon Musk. For example his unrealistic plans for colonizing Mars^ or sending people around the world aboard rockets (see this awesome fact-checking^ video), both of which would be a complete waste of critical resources and a mockery of the critical situation in other parts of the planet. The following Seeking Alpha article pours some cold water on all the Musk hype:
Don’t get me wrong, I have a lot of respect for Musk. He’s done great with Tesla Motors. In fact, he’s done so great that now Big Motor is out to get him. It’s amazing how much competition he managed to ignite and thus has done the world a great favor. He’s done even better with Space X given how much the enterprise has helped our extra-terrestrial research and development. But some of his statements are scientifically unsound and that devalues him in the eyes of those that matter a lot for his ventures’ future. I have no problem with idealism, but I do have a problem with cheap PR tactics.
But I digress. The reason I am writing this is to remind you about some of the great things we have because of Tesla Motors. And what better way to share facts than together with a laugh? Here’s an awesome oldie but goldie comic from The Oatmeal, work of cartoonist Matthew Inman:
And since I mentioned Tesla and The Oatmeal, let me end on a positive note by sharing Matthew’s awesome post-mortem kudos to scientist Nicola Tesla. I think the cartoonist is right and few scientists were as unfairly treated by history as Tesla. But I also think that few scientists have been “avenged” as well as Tesla, thanks to Matthew’s work:
The cartoonist actually managed to get help from his fans and Elon Musk himself to save Nicola Tesla’s lab. There are plans to turn it into a museum. In fact, The Oatmeal comic did so well that it drew out a critical response from a columnist over at Forbes. Below, you can find both the article from Forbes and Matthew’s amusing and wonderful reply:
[ax_meta lnimgurl=’http://mentatul.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/02410-TeslaMotors-Thumb.jpg’ lnimgw=’250′ lnimgh=’250′ title=’Tesla Motors May Be in Trouble, but Remember These Facts’ desc=’A respected investigative journalist has recently penned a rather worrying piece about Tesla Motors' progress with its high-stakes Model 3 vehicle.’]
Like pretty much everybody that is up to date with current events, I’ve been following China’s rise as a high-tech superpower with great interest. The article below touches on some very important points concerning innovation while showing some interesting statistics about one of China’s innovation hubs, Shenzhen:
But there’s more than patent applications that will power China’s success. The country’s social system is more competitive than many of its Western adversaries. Many Westerners (including me) would have ethical qualms in toying with genetically engineered human embryos. I’m quite sure that China is willing to go further and faster with such experiments. It is quite possible that this is an even greater game-changer than our so-called efforts into artificial “intelligence”^ (for a reality check regarding the marketing trick sold as “intelligence”, check the linked article).
China has lots of natural resources (land, minerals) and it knows how to use them (unfortunately it also generally has less moral qualms about damaging the ecosystem compared to other countries). Combine all this with a government which (like it or not) has been more constant than many of the competing superpowers and you get the textbook definition of “game-changer”. The following years will no doubt be very interesting (and hopefully we’ll see some good decisions being taken going forwards).
[ax_meta lnimgurl=’http://mentatul.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/02390-ChinasRiseTech-Thumb.jpg’ lnimgw=’250′ lnimgh=’250′ title=’Behind China's Success’ desc=’About China's rise as a high-tech superpower.’]
Because being informed is just not enough anymore…
